Carrera Carla Fernanda Merino
Enrique Meza Ana Ocampo
O USD devaluation causes price hike in international trade. O
EU has two pillars: USD
O Pentagon countries do not allow the entry of USD in excess of its economy. Mayor
O input Chinese goods lost competition in the Chinese market potential harm domestic industry. O
countries are caught between U.S. and China exchange intervention. O Oil
previously only traded in U.S. dollars much of Europe today euros paid by the Middle Eastern oil
Euro or participation in international reserves increase
O Russia started to export oil and gas in Euros
or risk of OPEC collectively adopt the euro.
Or those who switch to Euro are regarded as terrorists to war to keep Europe's decline
OR U.S. imports from China and there is no productive work for export but has gain on the currency. O
free credit U.S. has reserves of those countries that grant. O
entire economy is growing above a deudasà pyramid will soon fall.
O The U.S. debt is world GDP or U.S.
into debt with his own money to inflation
OR U.S. has a growing fiscal deficit and a fiscal surplus East.
or reservations can not switch to Euro as it would increase over the value of Euro vs USD
o If the USD falls Asian stocks fall. The O
Reservations are now turning to gold. O
International markets have been affected by the war of currencies. Investors look
O secure reservations as bonds and gold. O
East does not appreciate its currency for fear of depreciation of USD.
or long term interest rates have an effect and become unpayable debts.
Monica Arguelles. Francisco Javier Ruiz
Mazon
Juan José Félix
Juan Pablo Betancourt holds U.S. East
The international dollar is falling because there are a lot of debt in U.S. public and private debt, should the World GDP, the debt
Half
abroad must pay each year in interest 300 MUSD
Nearly 60% of 1.5 billion is USD vs 30% in Eur
2 / 3 of reserves are USD vs 20% in Euro-
23% of USD certificates are held by foreigners
U.S. borrows in its own currency even outside
This avoids the own goal of inflation
Free Credit Worldwide
Conclusion: No definition
unilateral benefits someone long term.
The currency basket is a good solution but hurts U.S. public finance free credit for the world economy in the international reserves of the countries.
affects the USD is to affect 50% of world consumption.
metals are not the solution because they are already in the hands of threatened economies like the euro and dollar.
leave the U.S. to accept free financing to support countries that still have reservations on its own petard.
IVAN MORENO ANA GABRIELA ANDRES QUEVEDO
BAQUEDANO
DAVILA LAURA WHAT IS THE CURRENCY WAR? •
various international maneuvers are taking place to support the current fiat money system in which the importance of the U.S. dollar is determined by the fact that prices of many goods
• PURPOSE OF ECONOMIES:
to reactivate their economies from the injection of large doses money and strongly cheaper borrowing costs
THE FALL OF IMPERIAL
dollar as
• The fall of the empire of the dollar, a weakening of its currency by 40% against the euro
• DANGER dollar reserve currency and its impact on global economy
• Challenge vs. euro.
U.S. dollars
• Revaluation of the yuan
• Increased monetary expansion
strong liquidity in the U.S. • Divestment minimum interest rates
• EU is the only one who can finance their debt to local currency
• Diversification of international reserves
• OPEC sells to other currencies
• USA is not as competitive vs. China (Marketing is cheaper in China)
• Threat from the Chinese Government and Chinese People's Bank (Central Bank) to tilt the balance of the reserve currencies.
currency appreciation
• Emerging obvious obstacles to capital inflows to prevent excessive appreciation of the following effects:
reduce competitiveness in export markets
Impairs à
trade deficit deteriorates the national industrial sector more expensive
household products to the international market
flows are slow inward foreign exchange at a lower amount of "reserve currency" less local currency to support local inflation
CONSEQUENCES OF WAR CURRENCY:
• Trade flows stop • Create reservations
other currency
• Replace the dollar with the euro currency basket, yen, yuan
• Countries devalue its currency to gain export advantage over
• Reduced risk of trade flows and global recession
• A dollar makes other weak currencies appreciate
• "New connections money?
Currency Basket "?
Concerns:
• What is the method to calculate the best price weighted basket?
• What about the TC's between the currencies of the basket as determined?
• In fact there will be no foreign war? à What if there are multiple baskets?
• TC will determine their currencies with respect to the basket, but how do I do with respect to each currency in the basket?
Benefits:
• Reduced effects of volatility in the TC's
• While some currencies in the basket pass other the bad times offset
• Diversification of Reserves to more countries would enjoy similar capabilities to the U.S. economy Possible effects on
• U.S. Dollar no longer be the only one capable of high levels of deficit financing
• You can not export as much inflation as today
• Ambiguity for Monetary Policy Effects on a coin no longer
• What if there were several baskets and the dollar is less important them?
• Euro, Pound and others more important than the dollar in other markets. • Possible baskets
omit the dollar "Monetary Unions?
Daniela Arias Goyarzu
Ingrid Nayeli Torres Martínez
Rodrigo Andres García-Reyes Herrera
Del 2000 al 2004 el dólar cayó un 40% frente al Euro. Es decir , el Euro se apreció en 65% pasando de 0.82 a 1.36 euros por dólar.
La devaluación del dólar se refleja en el alza de precios del Comercio Internacional en dólares.
Metales subieron en 21% , Petróleo en 34%.
El euro fue diseñado para desafiar la hegemonía global del dólar en el ámbito financiero y comercial.
Como potencia económica EEUU ya no establece las reglas del juego, mucho menos domina el actual juego de poder
En 2001, Russia was exporting half of its oil and gas in euros and there were negotiations for bilateral trade with the EU are made in euros
U.S. rivalry with China. UU. has been an explicit political ambition in the productive sphere.
• USA is strategic to preserve the dollar as the reserve currency. This privilege, which it acquired from the end of World War II.
• Since the oil crisis, the U.S. did in 1975 that OPEC will agree to market their oil in dollars.
• In 2000, Iraq persuaded the Europeans to challenge the U.S. to use the Euro instead of Dollar.
• Since 2000, countries like North Korea change its foreign reserves from dollars to euros.
• In November 2004, the U.S. allowed the dollar to fall when the Central Bank of Russia announced replace part of its reserves into euros.
• Low labor productivity: the USA is so little
competitive products imported from China
at a cost equivalent to 30% or less than it would to produce them.
The falling dollar is not an external threat but a threat to internal causes.
The threat is not the euro or not intended to replace the dollar.
The current global economic system is built on debt.
owe a total of U.S. $ 38 billion, or nearly global GDP.
federal government debt: 7.5 billion, or 65% of GDP, half of this debt, the U.S. owes it to the outside. Only pay interest on 300 billion dollars a year. Debt
States and local governments: $ 1.6 billion.
Public debt: 9.1 billion dollars.
Private Debt: $ 9.6 trillion.
corporate debt: 7.6 billion. Debt
financial sector: 11.7 trillion.
A quarter of the current U.S. trade deficit owes it to trade with China.
When the dollar depreciated, international reserves of Asian countries
lose value quickly.
Yes, Asian countries seek to diversify their reserves by buying other currencies would cause
from and a rapid fall in the dollar.
• Yes, Asian countries adopt the euro in international reserves, the U.S. imports would be reduced and European imports would rise.
• With the current exchange rate, the EU and on the brink of recession. The euro is not a very safe harbor.
• More likely to replace the dollar with a basket currency among which are: the euro, the yen and the yuan to the U.S. dollar.
• The role of gold as an international reserve is increasing.
• International reserves
to September 2010 amounted to approximately USD 9 billion
Conclusion We believe that the fall of the dollar as a matter of
universal time. The replacement of international reserves in other currencies
and strengthening of other currencies is a trend we've
observed in recent years. While there are still elements
suggest that the dollar will remain the strongest currency
(marketing oil), the European Union with the euro increasingly taking each
strength and this is reflected mainly by the devaluation of the currency
.
Another aspect to highlight is the importance
China has taken in recent years,
believe that today this country is essential to the conduct
dollar. The role that China now plays with
exports is very dynamic and a change in currency reserves
would make its currency appreciate
directly affecting the dollar. Manon
Antonio Macias.
Daniel Duran Contreras. José Enrique Rivas
Colombo.
Fernando Manuel Gómez Moya.
Jesús Adrián Meléndez Vázquez.
Desde el establecimiento del Euro como moneda única de la Comunidad Económica Europea, el dólar encuentra un posible rival en la supremacía como moneda de reserva mundial, con las ventajas que conlleva para el país emisor de una moneda de reserva.
En efecto, antes del Euro, no había una moneda con suficiente volumen como para aspirar a la supremacía, entre las monedas más importantes se encontraban el Marco Alemán y el Yen.
Entre el euro y el dólar, dos rivales de similar fortaleza, puede haber una lucha por supremacía, en la que will succeed who can establish greater trust, which means less imbalances and therefore more stable and sustained growth.
Reserves have grown ever faster in the form of money, which in turn were popular because they are purely dollars, but in recent years, many of the countries holding their reserves in that currency, have opted to change it the euro, which although a relatively new currency, is seen as a reliable way to invest, the question is how a piece of such a short time of existence has become so strong in all world markets and in turn has made gradually diminish the importance of the dollar? Power
hegemonic reserve currency.
OPEC sells its oil in dollars only.
As a reserve currency, the U.S. can get free credit.
60% of international transactions are conducted in dollars.
The inflationary effect of issue is exported to other countries.
The majority of the world debt is in dollars.
United States has invested heavily in weapons, thus strengthening the dollar.
The main weakness of the dollar is a result of monetary expansion. Mayor
supply of dollars, the more downward pressure on trading.
based primarily on the military industry as the only economic sector truly productive and competitive.
little credibility in times and fees (mortgage boom 2008).
change from dollars to euros in oil countries.
Asian countries have changed their reserves into euros.
The euro was designed to challenge the dollar in the financial and commercial.
capital is fleeing the dollar, mainly to the euro, which has shown strength in recent years.
The massive acquisition of international reserves in euros rather than dollars raise the price of euro.
in Arab countries has been changing oil prices on the dollar to euro.
Only 37% of international transactions in euros.
The euro is not a very safe harbor and the U.S. will do everything possible to prove it.
countries are opting to replace the dollar currency basket, containing the yen and yuan, not just the euro.
The system currently provides downward pressure, mainly due to debt levels of countries like Spain, Portugal and Greece.
China's rivalry with the United States has been a political ambition explicit in the productive sphere.
U.S. is so uncompetitive that products imported from China at a cost equivalent to 30% less than it would produce in the U.S..
When the dollar depreciated, the international reserves of Asian countries lose value quickly.
If Asian countries seek to diversify their reserves by buying other currencies would cause a rapid drop in the dollar.
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